Tennis betting: markets, set betting maths and retirement rules

Key facts

Under the TAB's Victorian rules, if a player retires, withdraws or is disqualified after the first serve, undecided single bets are refunded and multis are recalculated without that leg.
Men's singles at the Australian Open and every major is best of five sets, with a first-to-10 match tiebreak in the deciding set.
If a player wins 60% of sets, in our calculation they win a best-of-five match 68.26% of the time and win 3-0 only 21.6% of the time.
The Australian Open 2027 runs from 11 to 31 January, with the main draw from 17 January and the singles finals on 30 and 31 January.
ACMA reported that Tabcorp paid a $158,400 penalty after accepting 426 online in-play bets across 32 tennis matches.

Tennis betting, simply

Tennis betting is a fixed odds bet on a match, a set, a game total or a tournament, placed with a licensed Australian bookmaker before the first serve. There are only two outcomes in a singles match and no draws, which makes the maths clean. What makes tennis different is how bets are settled when a match does not finish. The settlement rules quoted here are the TAB's published Victorian sports betting rules; other bookmakers publish their own, and on retirements they can differ.

The main tennis markets

Market	What you pick	When it is decided
Head to head (match winner)	The player who wins the match	At match point
Set betting	The exact score in sets, such as 3-1	At match point
Set handicap	A player to win after a set start, such as -1.5 sets	At match point
Total games	Over or under a number of games	At the end of the match
Game handicap	A player to win after a games start	At the end of the match
First set winner	Who takes the first set	When the first set ends
Tournament winner	The champion of the event	When the final is played

A head to head is the base of most tennis bets, and our head to head betting guide covers how a two-way market is priced. The other markets split the same match into smaller pieces, each with its own margin.

Head to head prices and the margin

Take a match priced at $1.30 and $3.60. The chances implied by those prices are 1 / 1.30 = 76.92% and 1 / 3.60 = 27.78%, a total of 104.70%. In our calculation, stripping the 4.70% out evenly gives fair prices of about $1.36 and $3.77, and a balanced book keeps about 4.49%.

At $1.30 you need the player to win more than 76.92% of the time just to break even, so a few upsets a season can wipe out a lot of small wins. If you prefer fractional or American prices, our odds converter translates them.

Set betting: why exact scores pay more

Set betting asks for the exact score. To show how the chances split, assume a player wins any given set 60% of the time and each set is independent. That is a simplification, but it shows the shape.

Best-of-five score	Chance in our calculation	Fair price
Favourite 3-0	21.60%	$4.63
Favourite 3-1	25.92%	$3.86
Favourite 3-2	20.74%	$4.82
Underdog 3-2	13.82%	$7.23
Underdog 3-1	11.52%	$8.68
Underdog 3-0	6.40%	$15.62

Add the favourite's three rows and you get 68.26%, the chance of winning the match, which is a fair price of $1.47. A 60% edge per set becomes a 68% edge per match over five sets, because the longer format rewards the better player. It also means the favourite's most likely single score is 3-1, not a straight-sets win.

Australian Open betting: formats and dates

The Australian Open's own scoring guide says a men's singles match at the Australian Open, and at every major, is best of five sets. A set at 6-6 goes to a tiebreak, and in the deciding set the tiebreak is a match tiebreak: first to 10 points, with at least a two-point margin.

The Australian Open 2027 runs from 11 to 31 January. Opening Week is 11 to 16 January, main draw play starts on 17 January, and the singles finals are on 30 and 31 January. Tournament winner prices are futures bets, open for weeks before a ball is hit and exposed to every injury and withdrawal in between.

What a retirement does to your bet

This is the rule to learn before you place any tennis bet. Under the TAB's Victorian rules:

A match is treated as started with the first serve.
If a player withdraws, is disqualified or fails to complete the match after that, every single bet not yet decided is refunded.
Bets already decided stand. A first set winner bet is settled once the first set is complete.
If the scheduled number of sets is not completed for any reason, undecided bets are void.
A multi with an affected leg is recalculated on the other legs, as if that event had been abandoned.

So a player leading by two sets who retires hurt does not win you the bet, and a player trailing does not lose it. You get your stake back. In a multi the leg drops out:

Three-leg multi, $10	Prices	Combined price	Return if all win
Before the retirement	$1.30 x $1.50 x $2.00	$3.90	$39.00
The $1.30 player retires mid-match	$1.50 x $2.00	$3.00	$30.00

Our multi bet calculator recalculates any multi when a leg is voided.

Two other tennis rules in the same set: a change of venue does not void bets if the playing surface stays the same, and if a scheduled match is played early in the tournament, bets stand.

The in-play ban, enforced on tennis

Tennis is the sport ACMA used to make the point. In 2026 ACMA reported that Tabcorp paid a $158,400 penalty after accepting 426 in-play bets online across 32 tennis matches. Online in-play sports betting is prohibited under the Interactive Gambling Act. The only exception is a bet where the selection, bet type, amount and confirmation are given wholly by phone. Our guide to in-play betting in Australia explains the rule and the phone exception.

The other rules for licensed wagering are just as firm. Bet with a bookmaker licensed in an Australian state or territory, and expect to fund the account with a debit card or bank transfer: since 11 June 2024, licensed online wagering providers cannot accept credit cards, credit-related products or digital currencies.

Pundit tip: if a player has a known niggle, the retirement rule protects you from a mid-match withdrawal, but not from a player who plays on at half pace and loses. Price the injury in before you bet, not after.

A tennis bet checklist

Check the retirement rule at your bookmaker. Rules differ between bookmakers.
Convert the price to a chance and ask whether you rate the player higher.
For set betting, remember the favourite's most likely score may not be a straight-sets win, as the table shows.
Bet before the first serve.
Keep stakes small on long tournaments, where injuries pile up.

Cricket has its own set of strange endings, covered in our cricket betting guide. All the other bet types are in our bet types guide, and how to read odds covers decimal prices from scratch.

Frequently asked questions

What happens to a tennis bet if a player retires?

Under the TAB's Victorian sports rules, if a player retires, withdraws or is disqualified after the match has started, any single bet not yet decided is refunded. In a multi, that leg is removed and the payout is recalculated on the other legs. Other bookmakers set their own retirement rules, so check before you bet.

How does set betting work in tennis?

You pick the exact score in sets, such as 3-1. In a best-of-five match there are six possible scores, three for each player, so each one pays more than the match winner but wins less often.

When is the Australian Open 2027?

The Australian Open 2027 runs from 11 to 31 January. Opening Week runs from 11 to 16 January, the main draw starts on 17 January, and the singles finals are on 30 and 31 January.

Can you bet on tennis during a match in Australia?

Not online. Online in-play sports betting is banned under the Interactive Gambling Act, and ACMA has penalised a licensed bookmaker for taking in-play tennis bets online. A phone bet is the only exception.

Is betting on tennis legal in Australia?

Yes, with a bookmaker licensed in an Australian state or territory, placed before the match starts if you bet online. You cannot use a credit card or crypto to fund a licensed wagering account.