Futures betting: outright markets, All In rules and hedging

Key facts

A futures (outright) bet is on a result decided later, such as a season, a tournament or a big race months away.
Under the TAB's Victorian sports rules, sports bets are All In: if your selection does not take part, the stake is forfeited.
For racing futures, the TAB says All In bets on a scratched runner are not refunded, while Final Field bets are refunded in full.
An example 8-runner outright market adds up to 105.24% in implied chances: the fair price of its $3.50 favourite is about $3.68.
A $25 bet at $8.00 that later shortens can be hedged: in our example, backing the other finalist for $95.24 locks in $79.76 either way.

What futures betting is

Futures betting means placing a bet today on a result that will only be known later. Typical futures, also called outright markets, are a season winner, a league award, a tournament winner or a feature race before the field is final. The bet sits in your account, unsettled, until the event ends.

The attraction is price. Before injuries, form and team news are known, the bookmaker is pricing a wider range of outcomes, so the prices on each one can be longer. The cost is everything that can happen between now and the result, plus the fact that your stake is locked up for the whole period.

How an outright market is priced

A futures market lists every contender at once, so the margin is spread across many prices. Here is an example 8-runner outright market:

Selection	Example price	Implied chance	Fair price (margin removed)
A	$3.50	28.57%	$3.68
B	$4.50	22.22%	$4.74
C	$6.00	16.67%	$6.31
D	$8.00	12.50%	$8.42
E	$10.00	10.00%	$10.52
F	$15.00	6.67%	$15.79
G	$21.00	4.76%	$22.10
H	$26.00	3.85%	$27.36
Total		105.24%	100%

In our calculation the implied chances add up to 105.24%, and dividing each price by 1.0524 gives the fair price with the margin taken out. Real outright markets often list many more contenders, and every extra name is another price the margin can be spread across. Add up the implied chances of a whole market before you bet into it; our guide to the bookmaker margin shows how.

The price you take also tells you the chance you need. If you rate a team at 15%, its fair price is $6.67 (1 / 0.15). Taking $8.00 on that team is a bet at a better price than your own estimate; taking $5.50 is not.

The All In rule

Most futures are All In: if your pick does not take part, you lose your stake. This is the rule that catches people out.

The TAB's Victorian sports rules (rule 6.11) say all wagering on events it bets on is on an All In basis, subject to its racing rule.
The same rules define All In as "the forfeiture to the Betting Operator of all Investments made in respect of a Competitor" that does not participate.
A withdrawal is defined to include competitors who fail to qualify, are ineligible, are disqualified or otherwise do not participate.
The TAB's NSW rules (clause 6.1.1) also make declared events bets All In, with listed exceptions.

So if you back a player for a season award and they are ruled ineligible, or back a team that fails to qualify for the finals series your bet was about, the bet is a loser, not a refund. For award markets with eligibility rules, such as the Brownlow Medal betting market, read the market rules before you bet.

Racing futures: All In vs Final Field

Racing has its own version, and timing is everything. The TAB's scratching refunds page says fixed odds futures bets on a scratched runner "are not subject to a refund as they are 'All In'", while bets on the Final Field "will be refunded in full".

Rule 6.14 of the TAB's Victorian rules sets out the timeline for horse, harness and greyhound futures:

When you bet	Your runner is scratched	Another runner is scratched
Before final acceptances	All In: stake lost	Bet stands, no deduction
After final acceptances, before the TAB adjusts its prices	Refunded	Bet stands, a deduction may apply
After the TAB adjusts its prices	Refunded	Bet stands

For greyhounds, the rule treats "the time for final acceptances" as after the box draw. Deductions are covered in detail in our guide to scratching deductions, and our Melbourne Cup betting guide covers the biggest racing futures market of the year.

Pundit tip: a long futures price on a runner that might not make the field is two bets in one: that it gets a start, and that it wins. Price both parts before you take it.

Golf and other outright markets

Each sport adds its own settlement rules. In the TAB's Victorian rules for golf:

If a 72-hole tournament is abandoned with fewer than 36 holes completed, bets on the outcome are void and refunded. With 36 or more holes and an official result, bets stand (rule 11.1.4.1).
Play-off holes count when deciding the winner, but place bets on players tied after the set number of holes are settled under the dead heat rules (rule 11.1.4.3).

Across all sports, rule 10.7 settles bets on the official result as adjudicated by the governing body, and says a later disqualification or promotion of competitors "is irrelevant" to the bet. For tournament markets in more depth, see our golf betting guide.

Hedging a futures bet

Because futures run for so long, the price on your pick can move a long way. If it shortens, you can lock in a profit by betting on the other side. Here is a worked example:

You bet $25 on Team X at $8.00 at the start of the season. A win returns $200.
Team X makes the grand final. The other finalist is $2.10.
To finish with the same profit either way, bet H on the other finalist so that both results pay the same: 200 - 25 - H = 2.10H - H - 25. That solves to H = 200 / 2.10 = $95.24.
If Team X wins: $200 - $25 - $95.24 = $79.76 profit. If the other team wins: $95.24 x 2.10 = $200, minus $120.24 staked = $79.76 profit.

In our calculation the hedge guarantees $79.76 whichever team wins. Cash out is the other route: the TAB offers it on some fixed odds singles and multis but says it is not guaranteed to be available. Our guide to hedging bets compares the two.

Is futures betting worth it?

Futures can offer prices you will not see later, but every week your stake is tied up is a week you cannot use that money, and every injury, suspension or scratching works against an All In bet. Treat a futures bet as money already spent. Under Australian law you cannot fund it with a credit card or crypto, and if your betting is no longer under control, our gambling help page lists free services. The other bet types are explained in our bet types guide.

Frequently asked questions

What is futures betting?

It is betting now on an outcome that will be settled in the future, often months away: a premiership winner, a season award, a golf major or a big race before the field is known. Futures are also called outright markets.

Do I get my money back if my futures pick does not play?

Usually not. The TAB's Victorian sports rules make sports bets All In, meaning stakes on a competitor that does not take part are forfeited. For racing, bets struck before final acceptances are All In; bets on the final field are refunded if your runner is scratched.

What does All In mean in betting?

All In means your bet stands whether or not your selection starts. The TAB defines it as the forfeiture of all investments on a competitor that does not participate. Its definition of a withdrawal includes competitors who are ineligible, disqualified or otherwise do not take part.

Are futures odds better value than betting on the day?

Not automatically. You may get a longer price before news is known, but you take on the risk of injury, scratching or form changes, and your money is tied up for the whole period. Compare the implied chance of the price with your own estimate before you bet.

Can I cash out a futures bet?

Sometimes. The TAB offers cash out on some fixed odds singles and multis, but says it is not guaranteed. The other option is a hedge: a separate bet on another outcome sized so you profit whichever way it goes.