Jackpot pokies: how fixed, progressive and linked jackpots really work

How pokie jackpots work

A pokie jackpot is a top prize paid for by a slice of every bet. Some jackpots are a fixed multiple of your stake; others grow as people play until someone wins and the pool resets. Either way the money comes from players, and the jackpot is counted inside the game's return to player.

There are three kinds:

NSW law has its own definition. Under the Gaming Machines Regulation 2019, a progressive system is two or more approved machines "linked electronically to contribute a percentage of the money wagered on them to a separate progressive jackpot pool". The national gambling statistics note that in some states machines may be linked to offer major jackpots.

Jackpot tiers: Mini, Minor, Major, Grand

Most modern jackpot pokies have several tiers. The names vary by maker:

• NetEnt Divine Fortune: Minor, Major and Mega. Fill one row with gold coins for the Minor, two rows for the Major, all three for the progressive Mega Jackpot.
• Pragmatic Play Wolf Gold: three jackpots, with the Mega worth 1,000x the bet.
• Big Time Gaming White Rabbit 2: Mini, Midi and Mega Megapots, which BTG says can only be won in the Hold and Spin feature.
• Aristocrat Lightning Link: a linked Grand Jackpot on top of the Hold & Spin prizes.

Many tiered jackpots are won through a respin feature. Our hold and spin pokies guide shows why the top tier, which usually needs a full screen, is so rare.

Where the jackpot money comes from: a worked example

Every jackpot has to be funded. Here is a simple progressive model. The numbers are invented to show the maths; no maker publishes its jackpot odds.

• Each $1 spin adds 1.5 cents to the jackpot.
• The jackpot starts at $1,000,000 after each win.
• The chance of winning it on any spin is 1 in 50,000,000.

On average the jackpot is won once every 50 million spins, so it collects about 50,000,000 x $0.015 = $750,000 of contributions before it drops. The average prize is therefore about $1,750,000.

What the jackpot is worth to you per spin is its size times your chance of winning it:

So if the rest of the game returns 90 cents per dollar, the full return averages about 93.5%. But 3.5 cents of every dollar you bet is going to one person in 50 million spins. For everyone else, the game is effectively a 90% machine.

Your real chances over a lifetime

The jackpot looks reachable because it hits somewhere, regularly. Your own share of the spins is tiny. Play 600 spins an hour, two hours a week, for 50 years, and you will make about 3.1 million spins. At 1 in 50 million per spin, the chance you ever win that jackpot is about 6%. In the other 94% of lifetimes, every jackpot contribution you made was paid to someone else.

That is not a reason never to play a jackpot game, but it is a reason not to choose one because the meter is high. Each spin is independent, as Victoria's regulator puts it, so a big jackpot is not due; believing otherwise is the gamblers fallacy. A higher meter only means each spin is worth a little more on average, as the table shows.

Pundit tip: if you play jackpot pokies, budget as if the jackpot does not exist. Use the game's return without the top prize, and the pokies calculator will give you a more honest hourly cost.

Major jackpot pokies and volatility

Big jackpots make a game more volatile. NetEnt says Mega Fortune's global jackpot has an expected payout of four million euros, while its maximum base game win is 2,162x the stake. Mega Joker, a classic NetEnt jackpot game, lists a 99.00% RTP and a progressive jackpot alongside a hit frequency of 17%. When a large share of the return sits in one rare prize, the ordinary sessions are leaner. Our pokies volatility guide shows what that does to a $100 session.

Rules that protect jackpot winners in venues

Australian venues have to follow rules about big prizes:

• Payment method (NSW). Hotels and clubs must pay any total prize over $5,000 by crossed cheque or electronic funds transfer, under clause 26 of the Gaming Machines Regulation 2019.
• Cover for big jackpots (NSW clubs). If a multi-terminal gaming machine in a club offers a jackpot over $20,000, the club must hold a special account or a bank guarantee covering it (clause 14). Those machines are limited to a $100 maximum bet and a $500,000 maximum prize (clause 13).
• Malfunctions (Victorian casino). The VGCCC's casino gaming machine rules say a malfunction, including of a jackpot display meter or jackpot controller, voids game plays, jackpots and payments.
• No syndicate play (Victorian casino). Two or more people acting together to affect the chance of winning a linked jackpot is banned.

Online jackpot pokies

Online jackpot pokies, including global networks like Mega Fortune's, cannot legally be offered to people in Australia under the Interactive Gambling Act. Offshore sites are not covered by any of the venue rules above, so there is no Australian body to complain to if a jackpot is disputed. If you are after a system to win one, our guide to how to win on pokies explains what you can and cannot control.

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