Key facts
- Hit frequency is the share of spins that return any win, even one smaller than the bet. NetEnt lists it for each game: from 45% for Blood Suckers down to 10% for Jackpot 6000.
- Average win when a spin wins = RTP divided by hit frequency. Blood Suckers: 98% / 45% = 2.18x the bet. Jackpot 6000: 98.9% / 10% = 9.89x, in our calculation.
- At a 23% hit rate, like Starburst, 7.3% of 10-spin runs have no win at all; at 10% it is 34.9%.
- Over 500 spins, a game with a 10% hit rate has a 90% chance of at least one run of 30 losing spins in a row; at 45% the chance of even 20 in a row is 0.14%.
- Hit frequency does not set the cost. RTP does: Blood Suckers wins far more often than Mega Joker but returns less per dollar (98.00% against 99.00%).
What pokies hit frequency means
Pokies hit frequency is the share of spins that pay a win of any size. If a game lists a 25% hit frequency, about one spin in four returns something. It is also called the hit rate. It is not the RTP, which is how much of every dollar comes back on average, and it is not volatility, which describes how widely results swing. But the three are tied together by one simple formula:
average win per winning spin = RTP / hit frequency
That formula is the most useful thing on this page. A game that returns 96% and wins on 24% of spins must pay 4 times your bet on average each time it wins. A game that returns the same 96% but wins on 12% of spins must pay 8 times. Same cost, very different ride.
Hit frequency, RTP and average win: real data
NetEnt publishes hit frequency next to RTP on its game pages. Dividing one by the other gives the average win when a spin pays, in our calculation:
| Game (NetEnt) | Hit frequency | RTP | Average win when it wins | About one win every |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blood Suckers | 45% | 98.00% | 2.18x bet | 2.2 spins |
| Gonzo's Quest | 41% | 95.97% | 2.34x | 2.4 spins |
| Steam Tower | 33% | 97.04% | 2.94x | 3.0 spins |
| Dead or Alive | 30% | 96.82% | 3.23x | 3.3 spins |
| Twin Spin | 28% | 96.55% | 3.45x | 3.6 spins |
| Jack Hammer | 25% | 96.96% | 3.88x | 4.0 spins |
| Starburst | 23% | 96.08% | 4.18x | 4.3 spins |
| Aloha! Cluster Pays | 21% | 96.42% | 4.59x | 4.8 spins |
| Divine Fortune | 20% | 96.59% | 4.83x | 5.0 spins |
| Mega Joker | 17% | 99.00% | 5.82x | 5.9 spins |
| Jackpot 6000 | 10% | 98.90% | 9.89x | 10 spins |
Two games show why the average hides a lot. Dead or Alive wins on 30% of spins with an average win of 3.23x, but NetEnt lists its maximum payout at 8,600x, so part of that average comes from rare, very large results, and a typical win is likely to be smaller than 3.23x. Jackpot 6000 has a 600x ceiling and still averages nearly 10x per win, because it pays so rarely.
Dry spells: the chance of no win at all
If each spin is independent with a hit chance h, the chance of no win in n spins in a row is (1 minus h) to the power n. In our calculation:
| Hit frequency | No win in 10 spins | No win in 20 spins | No win in 50 spins |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45% (Blood Suckers) | 0.3% | under 0.01% | effectively 0 |
| 23% (Starburst) | 7.3% | 0.54% | effectively 0 |
| 17% (Mega Joker) | 15.5% | 2.4% | 0.01% |
| 10% (Jackpot 6000) | 34.9% | 12.2% | 0.5% |
Over a longer session the question changes from "will I hit a dry spell?" to "how long will the worst one be?". Here is the chance of at least one losing run of a given length somewhere in 500 spins, from our calculation:
| Hit frequency | Run of 15+ losing spins | Run of 20+ | Run of 30+ | Run of 40+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45% | 2.8% | 0.14% | effectively 0 | effectively 0 |
| 23% | 91.0% | 45.9% | 4.2% | 0.3% |
| 10% | over 99.9% | over 99.9% | 90.5% | 52.2% |
On a 10% game, a run of 30 straight losses during a 500-spin session is close to certain, and a run of 40 is a coin toss. It is not a sign the machine has gone cold. It is what that hit rate produces.
Pundit tip: before you play a low hit rate game, multiply your bet by 40. If losing that much in a row would end your session, the bet is too big for the game.
Wins that are really losses
Hit frequency counts every win, including wins smaller than the bet. On a game with many lines, a large share of "hits" can be partial refunds. GambleAware NSW calls these losses disguised as wins: you get back less than you bet, but the machine celebrates.
A model makes the gap concrete. Suppose a game hits on 30% of spins, and half of those hits return less than the spin cost. Then you finish a spin ahead only 15% of the time, while the screen tells you that you won 30% of the time. The published hit frequency is the 30%. Your balance feels the 15%. For how lines create these small returns, see how do pokies lines work.
Hit frequency is not the cost
The cost of playing is set by RTP alone: average loss = total bets x (1 minus RTP). Two NetEnt games make the point:
| Blood Suckers | Mega Joker | |
|---|---|---|
| Hit frequency | 45% | 17% |
| RTP | 98.00% | 99.00% |
| Average loss per $1,000 bet | $20 | $10 |
Blood Suckers wins more than two and a half times as often and costs twice as much per dollar. A frequent win slows how fast your balance falls, which can make a session feel cheaper, but it does not change the average. The pokies calculator shows the expected cost of any RTP at your stake and speed.
Hit frequency is one ingredient of volatility, alongside the size of the top prizes and how much of the return sits in features. Our pokies volatility guide covers the full picture, and pokies bonus features shows how a rare free spins feature can carry a big slice of the return.
How to find a pokie's hit frequency
Few makers publish it. NetEnt does, on every game page we read. The Pragmatic Play, Play'n GO and Hacksaw pages we read do not; Hacksaw shows a volatility rating out of 5 instead. For pub machines, GambleAware NSW gives one related figure: the odds of a typical $5,000 prize on a $1 machine are 9,700,000 to 1.
Counting your own spins gives only a rough answer. If a game's true hit rate is 25%:
| Spins counted | Your count will usually land between (95% of sessions) |
|---|---|
| 100 | 16.5% and 33.5% |
| 200 | 19.0% and 31.0% |
| 1,000 | 22.3% and 27.7% |
That is a lot of money spent to measure a number the maker already knows. When it is published, as on netent pokies, use the published figure. When it is not, the RTP line in the rules screen is still the number that matters most. If tracking wins and losses has become a habit you want to break, gambling help australia lists free, confidential support.
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Frequently asked questions
What is hit frequency on pokies?
The percentage of spins that pay a win of any size. A hit frequency of 25% means about one spin in four pays something. It counts every win, including wins smaller than your bet, so it is not the same as how often you finish a spin ahead.
Is a higher hit rate better on pokies?
It means smaller, more frequent wins, not a cheaper game. The cost is set by the RTP. Gonzo's Quest wins on 41% of spins but has a 95.97% RTP; Mega Joker wins on 17% with a 99.00% RTP, so Mega Joker costs less per dollar bet.
How is hit frequency different from volatility?
Hit frequency is one number: how often a spin wins. Volatility describes the whole spread of results, including how big the rare wins are. A low hit rate usually goes with higher volatility, because the same return has to be paid in fewer, larger wins.
Where can I find a pokie's hit frequency?
Few makers publish it. NetEnt lists hit frequency on its game pages, for example 23% for Starburst and 21% for Aloha! Cluster Pays. The Pragmatic Play, Play'n GO and Hacksaw pages we read do not show it.
Can I work out the hit rate by counting my own spins?
Only roughly. If a game's true rate is 25%, a count over 200 spins will land between about 19% and 31% in 95 out of 100 sessions, in our calculation. You need around 1,000 spins to narrow that to 22% to 28%.
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