Key facts
- On a single zero wheel every standard bet has the same house edge: 1 in 37, or 2.70%. On a double zero wheel it is 2 in 38, or 5.26%.
- No betting system changes that. Your expected loss is always the house edge times the total you bet, whatever order you bet it in.
- A $10 Martingale on red with room for 7 bets wins $10 on 99.06% of runs, and loses $1,270 on the other 0.94% (about 1 in 106).
- Over 100 such runs there is a 61.2% chance of hitting at least one $1,270 loss, in our calculation.
- The best odds you can choose: a single zero wheel, and avoid the double zero five-number bet, which has a 7.89% house edge.
The honest answer: no system beats the wheel
No roulette strategy can overcome the house edge. On a single zero wheel there are 37 pockets, but a winning bet is paid as if there were 36. That gap, 1 in 37 or 2.70%, applies to every standard bet on the table. On a double zero wheel there are 38 pockets paid as if there were 36, an edge of 5.26%.
Because every bet carries the same edge, your expected loss over any session is simply:
expected loss = house edge x total amount bet
A system can change when you bet big and when you bet small. It cannot change the edge on any bet, so it cannot change the result above. Every system below is a different way of arranging the same 2.70%.
Roulette strategy with the best odds
The choices that genuinely lower your cost are simple:
| Choice | House edge | Cost per $1,000 bet |
|---|---|---|
| Single zero wheel, any standard bet | 2.70% | $27.03 |
| Double zero wheel, any standard bet | 5.26% | $52.63 |
| Double zero wheel, five-number bet (0, 00, 1, 2, 3) at 6 to 1 | 7.89% | $78.95 |
So the best roulette strategy is to find a single zero wheel, which halves the cost of a double zero game, and skip the five-number bet. After that, the only levers left are how much you bet per spin and how many spins you play. For the full table of bets and payouts, see roulette odds.
Roulette strategy: Martingale, by the numbers
The Martingale says: bet on an even-money chance like red, double your bet after every loss, and go back to your starting bet after a win. When you finally win, you recover all your losses plus your first bet.
It sounds unbeatable, until you write down the bets. Starting at $10 on red, single zero:
| Loss streak before a win | Next bet | Total lost so far | Chance of a streak this long (single zero) | Chance (double zero) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $20 | $10 | 51.35% | 52.63% |
| 3 | $80 | $70 | 13.54% | 14.58% |
| 5 | $320 | $310 | 3.57% | 4.04% |
| 6 | $640 | $630 | 1.83% | 2.13% |
| 7 | $1,280 | $1,270 | 0.94% | 1.12% |
| 10 | $10,240 | $10,230 | 0.13% | 0.16% |
The streak of 7 is the killer. Table limits and real bankrolls run out somewhere, so suppose you can afford 7 bets, up to $640. Then:
- 99.06% of runs end with a win: you pocket $10.
- 0.94% of runs (about 1 in 106) end with 7 losses: you lose $1,270.
- Average per run: 0.9906 x $10 minus 0.0094 x $1,270 = minus $2.05.
- Average amount bet per run: $75.94. And $2.05 is exactly 2.70% of $75.94.
The Martingale did not beat the edge. It turned it into lots of $10 wins and an occasional $1,270 loss. Over 100 runs, the chance of meeting at least one losing streak of 7 is about 61%. That is the moment players remember as "the system stopped working". It never worked; the bill had just not arrived yet.
Pundit tip: if a system needs you to bet more after losing, it is a plan to lose big less often. Decide your loss limit first, and the system will tell you nothing new.
To see how far your own bankroll stretches and how often a run busts, try the Martingale calculator.
Other systems, same maths
| System | How it works | What it really does |
|---|---|---|
| Reverse Martingale (Paroli) | Double after a win, reset after a loss or after 3 wins | Small frequent losses, rare bigger wins. On a $10 base with three wins to collect $70, you collect 11.5% of the time; the average per run is minus $0.79, which is 2.70% of the $29.20 you bet on average |
| D'Alembert | Add one unit after a loss, take one away after a win | A gentler Martingale. Loses slower in bad runs, still 2.70% of everything bet |
| Fibonacci | Bet the next number in 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8... after a loss, go back two steps after a win | Bets grow more slowly than doubling but still grow fast in a long losing run |
| Labouchere | Write a line of numbers, bet the first plus the last, cross them off on a win, add the bet to the line on a loss | Same pattern as Martingale: many small wins, rare large losses |
Every row has the same expected loss per dollar bet. A system cannot see the future; it can only see the past, and on a fair wheel the past has no influence on the next spin. Believing a colour or number is due after a streak is the gamblers fallacy. Oscars Grind, which aims for one unit of profit per series, follows the same rule; our Oscars Grind page works a series through.
Why systems feel like they work
Systems that chase losses produce a lot of small wins. If you play a few dozen Martingale runs, you will usually be ahead, because the big loss is rare. That is exactly why people swear by them, and exactly why the losses, when they come, are so large. The same psychology is at work on the pokies: our guide to how to win on pokies covers the myths that keep people chasing.
The streak to fear is not as rare as it sounds. On a single zero wheel, the chance of 10 non-red spins in a row is about 1 in 784 runs of ten.
What you can control
- Wheel type. Single zero halves the house edge of double zero.
- Bet size. Flat $10 bets on red cost $27 per $1,000 bet, whatever pattern you use.
- Number of spins. Fewer spins mean less money bet and less expected loss.
- A stop rule. A loss limit and a time limit protect you; a betting system does not.
The same arithmetic applies to crash games, where players use Martingale on a multiplier instead of a colour; see crash games. For a game where your decisions really do change the edge, read our blackjack strategy guide.
Roulette in Australia
Roulette is legal in person at licensed Australian casinos, where the state regulator approves the game rules. In Victoria, the VGCCC says it must approve any rules or changes to the casino's table games. Online roulette is a different matter: ACMA lists roulette among the casino-style games that are illegal to offer online to people in Australia.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the best roulette strategy?
There is no strategy that beats the house edge. The choices that actually lower your cost are playing single zero roulette (2.70% house edge) rather than double zero (5.26%), betting smaller amounts, and playing fewer spins. Everything else changes the pattern of wins and losses, not the average.
Does the Martingale strategy work in roulette?
It wins small amounts often and loses a large amount rarely, and the two balance out to the normal house edge. In our calculation a $10 Martingale on red with room for 7 bets loses $2.05 per run on average, which is exactly 2.70% of the $75.94 it bets on average.
What roulette bet has the best odds?
On a single zero wheel all standard bets have the same house edge, 2.70%, so none has better value. Even-money bets such as red or black win most often (18 in 37, about 48.6%), and a single number wins least often (1 in 37) but pays 35 to 1.
How many times in a row can red come up?
There is no limit, and each spin is independent of the last. On a single zero wheel the chance of 10 non-red results in a row is about 0.13%, or roughly 1 in 784 runs of ten, which is the kind of streak that breaks a Martingale.
Can you use a roulette strategy online in Australia?
Online roulette is a casino-style game that cannot legally be offered to people in Australia, and ACMA lists roulette among illegal online services. You can play roulette in person at licensed Australian casinos.
Related reading
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