Key facts
- The odds of getting blackjack are about 1 in 21 hands: 4.75% with 6 decks and 4.83% with a single deck, in our calculation.
- With 6 decks and standard basic strategy you win about 43.2% of rounds, push 9.2% and lose 47.6%. Blackjacks paying 3 to 2 and doubled wins make up the difference.
- That leaves a blackjack house edge of 0.46% on the overseas rule set and 0.55% on Australian casino rules, which allow doubling only on 9, 10 or 11.
- The dealer busts on about 28.2% of all hands with 6 decks when standing on soft 17, and has blackjack on 4.75%.
- A given run of five rounds is all losses about 2.4% of the time, but over 200 rounds the chance of meeting at least one such run is about 93%, in our calculation.
Blackjack odds at a glance
Blackjack odds come down to one uncomfortable fact and one comforting one. You lose more hands than you win, but the hands you win are worth more on average, so the house keeps less than 1% of what you bet if you play well. Every figure on this page is our own calculation, made with exact deal probabilities from the shoe.
| Event (6 decks, dealer stands on soft 17) | Chance | About 1 in |
|---|---|---|
| You are dealt blackjack | 4.75% | 21 |
| Dealer has blackjack | 4.75% | 21 |
| You and the dealer both have blackjack | 0.22% | 462 |
| Dealer busts | 28.19% | 3.5 |
| You finish the round ahead | 43.18% | 2.3 |
| Round is a push | 9.18% | 11 |
| You finish the round behind | 47.63% | 2.1 |
The win, push and lose figures assume basic strategy for 6 decks with doubling on any two cards, which is the rule set on our blackjack strategy chart. Split hands are counted together as one round.
Odds of getting blackjack
The odds of getting blackjack are the chance that your first two cards are an ace and a ten, jack, queen or king. With D decks there are 4D aces and 16D ten-value cards among 52D cards, so:
P(blackjack) = 2 x (4D / 52D) x (16D / (52D minus 1))
| Decks | Chance of a blackjack | About 1 in |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4.83% | 20.7 |
| 2 | 4.78% | 20.9 |
| 4 | 4.76% | 21.0 |
| 6 | 4.75% | 21.1 |
| 8 | 4.75% | 21.1 |
More decks make a natural very slightly rarer, which is one reason single deck games pay better for the player. In ten hands you have a 38.5% chance of at least one blackjack; over 50 hands, 91.2%. Pontoon uses 48-card decks with the tens removed, which drops the chance of a natural to 4.18%, or 1 in 24 with 6 decks.
Odds of the dealer having blackjack
The dealer's first card changes everything. In Australian casinos the dealer takes the second card only after you have played, so you never know for sure, but you can know the odds.
| Dealer's first card | Chance of dealer blackjack (6 decks) |
|---|---|
| Ace | 30.87% |
| Ten-value card | 7.72% |
| 2 to 9 | 0% |
An ace showing means the dealer completes blackjack just under a third of the time. Insurance pays 2 to 1 on that, which needs a third of the time to break even. At 30.87% it loses 7.40% of what you put on it in our 6 deck calculation (7.47% with 8 decks). The Queensland rules let you insure up to half your original bet; skipping it is the better choice every time unless you are counting cards.
Where the dealer's hand ends up
Because the dealer has no choices, the dealer's final total follows fixed odds. From a full 6 deck shoe:
| Dealer finishes on | Dealer stands on soft 17 | Dealer hits soft 17 |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 14.52% | 13.35% |
| 18 | 13.93% | 14.12% |
| 19 | 13.37% | 13.57% |
| 20 | 17.95% | 18.15% |
| 21 (not blackjack) | 7.29% | 7.49% |
| Blackjack | 4.75% | 4.75% |
| Bust | 28.19% | 28.58% |
Notice that 17 is the dealer's most common total under 20 when standing on soft 17. That is why a hand of 17 is weak: it only wins when the dealer busts. Hitting soft 17 turns some dealer 17s into better hands and nudges the bust rate up a little, and overall it costs you about 0.2% of every bet.
Odds of busting when you hit
If you hit a hard total, the chance of busting with the next card depends only on how many cards would take you past 21. With a 6 deck shoe in its starting mix:
| You hit a hard | You bust on | Chance of busting |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Any ten-value card | 30.8% |
| 13 | 9 or ten-value | 38.5% |
| 14 | 8, 9 or ten-value | 46.2% |
| 15 | 7 to ten-value | 53.8% |
| 16 | 6 to ten-value | 61.5% |
Even a 61.5% bust chance can be the right risk. Against a dealer 10, standing on 16 loses so often that hitting is still slightly better.
Blackjack house edge by rules
The blackjack house edge is the average share of your original bet that the casino keeps when you play perfectly for the rules in front of you. These are our calculated figures:
| Rules (no resplitting) | 6 decks | 8 decks |
|---|---|---|
| Double any two cards, dealer stands soft 17, 3 to 2 | 0.46% | 0.48% |
| Australian casino rules: double 9 to 11 only, no hole card, original bets only | 0.55% | 0.58% |
| Australian rules, dealer hits soft 17 | 0.77% | not calculated |
| Double any two cards, blackjack pays 6 to 5 | 1.81% | 1.84% |
The no hole card rule used in Queensland and Victoria does not cost you anything here, because a dealer blackjack only collects your original bet and returns the extra money from doubles and splits. The doubling limit costs about 0.1%, and a 6 to 5 payout costs more than the rest combined. Our guide to online blackjack in Australia compares these with Free Bet, Switch and pontoon, and the full house edge table puts blackjack beside every other casino game.
Why you lose more hands but the edge is small
You lose 47.6% of rounds and win 43.2%, so the raw count favours the house by more than four rounds in every hundred. Three things claw most of that back in our 6 deck figures:
- Blackjack pays 3 to 2. About 4.5% of rounds end in a 1.5 unit win.
- Doubles pay twice. You double on about 9.5% of rounds, and doubled wins return 2 units.
- You can stand on low totals. Unlike the dealer, you can let the dealer bust.
What is left after those is the 0.46% house edge. Your expected loss is that edge times your total original bets: 100 hands at $25 is $2,500 of action and an average cost of $11.50. You can test your own numbers with our expected value calculator.
Streaks: the odds of losing in a row
Treating each round as independent, with a 47.6% chance of finishing behind:
| Losing rounds in a row | Chance of that run, starting from any given hand |
|---|---|
| 3 | 10.8% |
| 5 | 2.4% |
| 7 | 0.56% |
| 10 | 0.06% |
Over a session the chance of meeting a streak somewhere is much higher than the table suggests: across 200 rounds there is about a 93% chance of at least one run of five losses and a 71% chance of a run of six. It means nothing about the next hand. The cards have no memory, and doubling your bet to chase it only raises the amount you lose at the same edge; see our gamblers fallacy guide.
Pundit tip: the most useful number on this page is the 6 to 5 line. Moving from a 3 to 2 table to a 6 to 5 table roughly quadruples what blackjack costs you.
Blackjack odds and the law
These odds hold at any table using these rules, including the blackjack dealt legally in Australian casinos under rules approved by state regulators. Online blackjack is different legally: ACMA lists blackjack among the casino-style games that cannot be offered online to people in Australia.
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Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of getting blackjack?
About 1 in 21 hands. In our calculation the chance of an ace and a ten-value card as your first two cards is 4.75% with 6 decks, 4.75% with 8 decks and 4.83% with one deck.
What are the odds of winning a hand of blackjack?
With 6 decks and correct basic strategy, about 43.2% of rounds end with you ahead, 9.2% are pushes and 47.6% end with you behind, in our calculation. Because blackjacks pay 3 to 2 and doubles win twice the bet, the average loss is only 0.46% of the original bet.
What is the house edge in blackjack?
It depends on the rules. In our calculation it is 0.46% for 6 decks with doubling on any two cards and the dealer standing on soft 17, 0.55% on typical Australian casino rules, 0.77% if the dealer also hits soft 17, and 1.81% if blackjack pays only 6 to 5.
How often does the dealer get blackjack?
On about 4.75% of hands with 6 decks. If the dealer's first card is an ace the chance rises to about 30.9%; if it is a ten-value card, about 7.7%.
Is the dealer more likely to bust than me?
No. The dealer busts on about 28.2% of hands, but you act first, and if you bust you lose even when the dealer busts later. That ordering is the main source of the house edge.
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