Caribbean stud poker: rules, strategy and house edge in numbers

Key facts

You ante, see five cards and one dealer card, then fold or raise twice the ante. The dealer needs ace-king or better to qualify; if not, only your ante is paid, even with a royal flush.
With perfect strategy, Queensland's paytable (royal 250 to 1) has a 5.20% house edge on the ante, or 2.54% of all money bet, in our exact calculation.
The big royal adds little: the same game with a 100 to 1 royal would cost 5.22%, because a royal comes once in 649,740 hands.
Simple rule that gets close: raise any pair or better, fold below ace-king, and raise ace-king when the dealer's upcard matches one of your cards or your third card is a queen. That costs 5.30%.
Never folding is the expensive mistake: raising every hand costs 16.6% of the ante.

Caribbean stud poker at a glance

Caribbean stud poker is five card stud played against the dealer instead of other players. You make one decision per hand: fold, or raise a bet of twice your ante. Played perfectly on Queensland's paytable, the game keeps 5.20% of your ante in our calculation. That makes it noticeably dearer than three card poker or casino hold'em, and the headline royal flush payout barely changes that.

Caribbean stud rules, step by step

These follow schedule 3 of the Queensland Casino Gaming Rule. Victoria's regulator also lists Caribbean Stud Poker among the games with approved rules for the Melbourne casino.

Ante. Every player places an ante before the deal. One deck is used.
Deal. You get five cards face down. The dealer gets five, with one card face up (the upcard).
Fold or raise. Fold and the dealer takes your ante. To stay in, you place a bet of exactly twice the ante.
Dealer reveals. The dealer must have ace-king high or better to qualify. The table layout must state "dealer only plays with ace & king or higher".
Dealer does not qualify: your ante is paid 1 to 1 and your raise is void (returned), whatever you hold.
Dealer qualifies: if your hand ranks higher, the ante pays 1 to 1 and the raise pays from the table below. If it ranks lower you lose both. Equal hands stand off.

Hands rank in the standard five card order (see our poker hand rankings), with the ace allowed to play low in A-2-3-4-5.

The Queensland paytable for the raise

Your winning hand	Raise pays	Chance of being dealt it
Royal flush	250 to 1	1 in 649,740
Straight flush	50 to 1	1 in 72,193
Four of a kind	20 to 1	1 in 4,165
Full house	7 to 1	1 in 694
Flush	5 to 1	1 in 509
Straight	4 to 1	1 in 255
Three of a kind	3 to 1	1 in 47
Two pair	2 to 1	1 in 21
One pair or ace-king	1 to 1

Two catches are written into the rule. The raise is paid only if the dealer qualifies, and the total payment on a raise is limited to the maximum payment posted for the table. On a $10 ante, a royal flush with a qualifying dealer pays $5,000 on your $20 raise, unless the posted maximum is lower.

Caribbean stud poker odds: the house edge, calculated

We checked every five card hand you can hold against every dealer upcard and every set of four hidden dealer cards, with the best fold or raise decision each time. The dealer's upcard matters, because it removes a card you might otherwise fear and it changes how often the dealer qualifies.

Strategy	House edge on the ante	Notes
Perfect play, using the upcard	5.20%	Raise on 52.2% of hands
Pair or better, plus ace-king when the upcard matches one of your cards or your third card is a queen	5.30%	Easy to remember
Raise any pair or better, fold everything else	5.44%	Simplest sensible rule
Raise pair or better and every ace-king	5.66%	Raising all ace-king hands is a leak
Raise every hand	16.58%	Never folding is ruinous

Because you raise just over half the time, your average total bet is 2.04 times the ante, and the 5.20% edge on the ante equals 2.54% of everything you wager. At a $10 ante, the expected cost is about 52 cents per hand, or $52 per 100 hands.

What the 250 to 1 royal is worth. Run the same calculation with a 100 to 1 royal and the house edge is 5.22%. The bigger royal is worth about 0.025 percentage points to you, since it turns up once in 649,740 hands and is only paid when the dealer qualifies.

The ace-king decision

The dealer qualifies on about 56.3% of random five card hands, so most strategy questions come down to the hands just at the line: ace-king high with no pair. They make up 6.4% of all deals. In our calculation, perfect play raises only 36% of them. The pattern:

Your ace-king hand	Dealer upcard matches one of your ranks	No match
A-K-Q high	Always raise	Raise in 62% of cases
A-K-J high	Always raise	Never raise
A-K with a 10 or lower third card	Raise in roughly 56% to 60% of cases	Never raise

Why does a match help? If the dealer shows a card you also hold, there are fewer of that rank left for the dealer to pair, so you are more likely to be ahead and the dealer slightly less likely to qualify with a pair.

Pundit tip: if your hand is worse than ace-king, fold without a second thought. A no-pair hand below ace-king can never beat a qualifying dealer, so a raise with it only wins when the dealer fails to qualify, and the dealer qualifies more often than not. In our calculation, perfect play never raises one.

Why strong hands disappoint

The dealer fails to qualify on roughly 44% of deals. Each time, your raise is handed back and you collect only the ante, whether you hold a pair of twos or four of a kind. This is the main reason the bonus table looks generous but the game still carries a 5.20% edge. Compare three card poker, where an ante bonus pays on straights or better regardless of the dealer, and the edge on Queensland rules is about 3.37% of the ante. In ultimate texas holdem, a separate blind bet pays for big hands even when the dealer fails to qualify.

Playing Caribbean stud in Australia

Caribbean stud is a table game for licensed land-based casinos, where each state's regulator approves the rules. There is no legal online version for Australians: offering casino-style games online to people in Australia is prohibited under the Interactive Gambling Act 2001. The prohibition targets providers rather than players, but an offshore table offers no Australian recourse if something goes wrong. More on that in our online poker Australia guide.

A 5.2% edge means steady losses over time. If you are spending more than you planned, talk to someone through our gambling help australia page.

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Frequently asked questions

What are the rules of Caribbean stud poker?

Place an ante, receive five cards face down while the dealer gets five with one face up, then fold (losing the ante) or raise a bet of twice the ante. The dealer qualifies with ace-king or better. If the dealer does not qualify the ante pays 1 to 1 and the raise is returned; if the dealer qualifies, the better hand wins and the raise is paid on a bonus table.

What is the house edge in Caribbean stud poker?

On Queensland's paytable we calculate 5.20% of the ante with perfect play, which is 2.54% of the total amount you bet because you raise on 52% of hands. Simple strategies push the cost to about 5.3% to 5.4%.

When should you raise in Caribbean stud?

Always with a pair or better, never with less than ace-king high. With ace-king, it depends on your other cards and the dealer's upcard. In our calculation, A-K-Q and A-K-J are always raised when one of your cards matches the upcard's rank, and A-K-J is never raised when none does.

Does a royal flush always pay 250 to 1?

No. Under Queensland's rules the bonus is paid on the raise only when the dealer qualifies and your hand wins, and the total is capped at the table's posted maximum payment. If the dealer fails to qualify, you are paid even money on the ante only.

Can you play Caribbean stud online in Australia?

Not legally. It is a casino-style game, which the Interactive Gambling Act 2001 bans from being offered online to people in Australia. Caribbean stud is played in person at licensed casinos, including under Queensland's Casino Gaming Rule.